An Artificial Intelligence System called MogIA that correctly predicted the previous three elections, plus the most recent Republican and Democratic primaries, claims that Trump will win this upcoming election. However, the general consensus seems to be that a Clinton victory is priced into the stock markets, consistent with the polls.
But Sanjiv Rai, developer of the MogIA, claims “If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years.” And things just got interesting.
Stocks could tumble on either side as Clinton faces more email scandal questions just days before the election. Some are speculating that the FBI’s letter to congress will renew hope and spur Trump supporters to get out and vote. Will the future President of the United States be forced to resign shortly after accepting the title of First Woman President of the USA? Or will Trump shake the entire world with a win for the Republicans after a truly bizarre and gongshowy election season?
What About Stocks?
Wondering which way is up come the red or blue pill? Here are a few good articles that cover the subject of the US election and stock markets.
Recap of the video, Hillary is generally seen as better for the stock market, although drug pricing and therefore drug or pharmaceutical companies will likely take a hit with a Clinton Victory… Financial Services and Banks on the other hand are in the crosshairs on both Republican and Democratic sides; carried interest, seen as a tax loophole, could get closed either way. Candidates actually both agree that changes have to happen on Wall St. Both candidates declare they will help infrastructure. Hillary is pragmatic about how she deals with the markets and Clinton winning is priced in right now- democratic sweep is more of a worry. “As the presidential election race narrows after Friday’s surprise FBI announcement, stock investors are finally showing some jitters.”
Markets think a Clinton victory is positive for the economy, backed up by the below graph. “Stock markets plunged on Friday, immediately after an announcement by FBI Director James Comey that the agency was reviewing new evidence in a probe related to its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server while she was secretary of state.”
Trump’s extremism and lack of governing experience are big uncertainties, something the financial markets don’t appreciate. “Normally, stock markets seem to prefer Republicans, presumably because of their more business-friendly policies. Trump, however, is no typical Republican politician.”
Brexit Part 2 if Trump wins this season, so watch the gold markets and hedge accordingly. “Trump is the king of unpredictability (something Wall Street hates), and he’s campaigned on an anti-trade agenda, which wouldn’t be good for big business. But what about if Clinton wins? Don’t expect a big rally, warns Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group. In fact, markets might take a dip then too.”
Stocks should still end the year higher, earnings are strong, GDP better than expected and the US economy grew by 2.9% in the third quarter. “’Punch drunk from the highly unanticipated Brexit outcome, institutional investors will take a wait and see approach until they have more clarity on how the balance of power in Washington will settle,’ said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities.”